Assessing Housing Need and Creating an Affordable Housing Strategic Plan in Frederick County, MD

Frederick County is one of Maryland’s fastest growing communities – and one of its most pressured housing markets. As demand surged, the County recognized a clear need: to create a coordinated, data-driven strategy for affordability.

How Does a Rapidly Growing County Stay Livable and Accessible?

Driven by growth spillover from Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, Frederick County has quickly transitioned from a rural/suburban area to an increasingly urban environment. Today, the City of Frederick is the second-largest incorporated municipality in Maryland – and housing demand is accelerating.

The County Executive, along with other county leadership, identified urgent priorities in its 2023 Transition report:

  • Establishing a centralized Division of Housing (DH).
  • Addressing regulatory and zoning barriers.
  • Strengthening support systems for vulnerable populations.

Once the Division of Housing was formed in the fall of 2024, it was time to formulate a strategic plan allowing the County to identify its most pressing housing needs and take action to meet those needs. That’s where TPMA came in.

From Data to Decisions to Action

Step 1: Understand the full housing landscape:

We combined data from CoStar and the U.S. Census Bureau, along with other market sources, to build a comprehensive picture of:

  • Demographic trends
  • Housing supply and pricing pressures
  • The true scale of the affordability gap

We didn’t just describe the problem. We quantified it, pinpointing how many households are cost-burdened across income levels, defining the real size of unmet need.

Step 2: Forecast what’s coming:

Using our proprietary Housing Demand Model, we projected future demand for both rental and for-sale housing units – ensuring the strategy wasn’t just reactive but forward-looking.

Step 3: Engage, align, and prioritize:

We engaged a broad network of stakeholders – housing practitioners, service organizations, and community leaders – to understand the current housing reality. Then, we shifted from input to action, facilitating strategic planning efforts with a focused group of housing practitioners to elevate priorities and cultivate accountability for those specific goals.

A Strategy Built to Drive Change

Frederick County now has a clear, actionable housing strategic plan that is actively guiding decision-making and investment.

Key priorities include:

  • Modernizing Regulations: updating policies like the Moderately Priced Dwelling Unit (MPDU), the Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO), the Payment In Lieu of Taxes (PILOT) to remove barriers and incentivize affordable housing development.
  • Unlocking new funding pathways: leveraging funding sources such as Tax Increment Financing (TIFs), Community Development Finance Institutions (CDFIs), to braid funding and expand development feasibility.
  • Preserving existing affordable housing: creating an inventory of subsidized units and implementing strategies to extend affordability beyond expiration timelines.
  • Promoting upward mobility: strengthening efforts around the Housing Choice Voucher Program and the Family Self-Sufficiency Program to support residents transitioning to market-rate housing.

Policy Pros and Cons

The strategic housing planning process highlighted a critical reality: housing policy is rarely one-dimensional.

For example, the County’s MPDU policy allowed developers to pay a fee instead of building affordable units. While this generated funding for the County, it also reduced the number of integrated affordable units in new developments.

The takeaway? Policy design must be intentional about tradeoffs – and aligned with desired outcomes.

From Strategy to Implementation

More broadly, the project reinforced the value of strong planning. With strong county leadership and guidance from TPMA, Frederick County gained a clear, data-backed strategy giving the community the foundation to evaluate performance, adapt policies, and sustain progress over time.

TPMA is continuing our partnership with Frederick County, this time with a focus on implementation.

“This phase will evaluate how policies, fees, and incentives either accelerate or hinder housing development” notes project lead Ben Helkowski. “I’m looking forward to seeing our recommendations drive positive change for the residents of Frederick County. The County should be proud of the progress they’re making to build systems that sustain affordable housing.”